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Cảnh báo nguy cơ bong bóng bất động sản xuất hiện trong 2018

Bong bóng bất động sản – có nguy cơ xuất hiện

Sự kiện đánh dấu mốc cho những dự báo cho thị trường BĐS nói chung và BĐS miền nam nói riêng. Cũng là chủ điểm cho bài viết này.

Ngày 5.4, tại sự kiện “Báo cáo thị trường BĐS nhà ở TP.HCM quý 1 năm 2018” với chủ đề “Thị trường bất động sản năm 2018 – Sóng về đâu?” do Công ty cổ phần DKRA Việt Nam tổ chức. Từ đây, cho thấy 1 năm 2018 thị trường đất nền vùng ven TP.HCM sẽ tạo cơn sóng thu hút sự quan tâm mạnh mẽ từ các chủ đầu tư và người mua.

Cảnh báo và xác nhận nguyên nhân bong bóng

Ông Phạm Lâm, Tổng giám đốc DKRA Việt Nam, đưa ra cảnh báo cơn sốt này sẽ có những tác động nguy hiểm nếu cứ tiếp tục kéo dài và mức tăng không được kiểm soát. Điển hình là khi khách hàng liên tục đầu tư vào đất nền đẩy mức giá tăng lên quá cao so với giá trị thực, giá tăng không kiểm soát có thể sẽ đưa thị trường lặp lại tình trạng bong bóng. Việc giao dịch nhiều lần sẽ làm cho thị trường mất cân đối, tiến trình đô thị hóa đình trệ.

Để cơn sốt đất có những tác động tích cực thì cần phải có sự quan sát và phản ứng kịp thời của cơ quan chức năng nhà nước, có sự minh bạch của tất cả các thành phần tham gia thị trường, sự nỗ lực của chính quyền địa phương cũng như của các chủ đầu tư, sự thận trọng và thông minh của người đầu tư.

Một điểm nữa đáng chú ý về sóng đầu tư theo vị trí là khu vực giáp ranh với TP.HCM như Nhơn Trạch (Đồng Nai), Cần Giuộc, Bến Lức (Long An), Lái Thiêu (Bình Dương). Làn sóng khu vực giáp ranh TP.HCM, không chỉ đất nền mà phân khúc nhà phố biệt thự cũng đang hấp dẫn khách mua cả để ở và đầu tư.

Trong khi đó, tại TP.HCM, năm 2018 sóng sẽ dồn về khu nam khi mà nguồn cung khu này đang có dấu hiệu tăng khi quý 1/2018 tăng 10% so với quý 4/2017. Dự kiến nguồn cung của khu nam trong 2018 sẽ khoảng 12.000 – 15.000 căn hộ và khoảng hơn 1.000 căn nhà phố/biệt thự. Đây là một lượng cung khá dồi dào, đưa khu nam trở thành khu vực sôi động nhất thị trường TP.HCM trong năm nay.

Nguyên nhân chủ yếu dẫn đến việc tạo sóng, đưa khu nam trở thành khu vực thu hút mạnh mẽ chủ đầu tư và người mua phải kể đến tác động của các thông tin hạ tầng giao thông sắp được triển khai tại khu vực này. Quan sát cho thấy, thời điểm khu đông tạo sóng rơi vào thời gian các công trình giao thông khu này bắt đầu hoặc có chủ trương khởi công. Điều này có thể sẽ tiếp tục lặp lại tại khu nam khi mà nơi đây đang và sắp triển khai nhiều dự án giao thông quy mô lớn như nút giao Nguyễn Hữu Thọ – Nguyễn Văn Linh, mở rộng đường Lê Văn Lương, Huỳnh Tấn Phát, cầu Nguyễn Khoái – Bến Vân Đồn, cầu Thủ Thiêm 4 nối Q.7 với Q.2,..

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