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Cơn sốt đất và những tác động tiêu cực có thể bạn chưa biết

Cơn sốt đất tạo ra nhiều tiêu cực như giá đất tăng mạnh, đẩy chi phí sản xuất lên cao, tạo xu hướng kỳ vọng ảo và tăng dần khoản nợ xấu. Đây không phải là một tín hiệu tốt

Ông Huỳnh Phước Nghĩa, Phó trưởng khoa Kinh doanh quốc tế – Marketing Đại học Kinh tế Tp.HCM cho biết, trong 4 năm (2014-2017), giá đất tại Tp.HCM liên tục tăng và chưa có dấu hiệu dừng lại trong năm 2018. Đây không phải là một tín hiệu tốt. Đặc biệt, trong năm 2017, khi cơn sốt đất lan rộng khắp Sài Gòn, mặt bằng giá đất đã được đẩy lên cao ngất ngưởng và không có dấu hiệu hạ nhiệt, tiềm ẩn một kịch bản xấu có thể xảy ra.

Vị chuyên gia này đã nêu những tác động tiêu cực mà cơn sốt đất tác động lên thị trường địa ốc nói riêng và cả nền kinh tế nói chung. Cùng với đó, ông Nghĩa cũng kêu gọi nhà đầu tư cảnh giác trước cơn sốt đất để tránh tiền mất tật mang.

Chi phí thuê mặt bằng tăng cao

Khi giá đất leo thang, chi phí thuê mặt bằng cũng sẽ tăng vọt. Khoản chi phí ngoài dự kiến này khiến giá thành hàng hóa và nhiều dịch vụ liên quan bị đội lên.

Chi phí sản xuất tăng

Cơn sốt đất cũng tác động xấu đến hoạt động sản xuất khi đẩy chi phí thuê nhà xưởng tăng cao, thậm chí, nhà xưởng bị lấy lại để phục vụ hoạt động mang lại nguồn lợi lớn hơn. Khi đó, ngành sản xuất vốn cần sự ổn định, bền vững lại trở nên bất ổn hoặc trì trệ, giá sản phẩm phải cõng thêm chi phí.

Tăng tranh chấp, lừa đảo đất đai

Giá đất tăng mạnh và không ngừng sẽ tác động đến quyền lợi của các bên liên quan, từ đó làm phát sinh tranh chấp, lừa đảo, kiện tụng. Thậm chí, việc thẩm định giá, khiếu nại giá đất có thể thường xuyên diễn ra. Lòng tham dẫn đến tranh chấp, từ đó tạo tiền lệ xấu cho thị trường, làm ảnh hưởng đến tính minh bạch và bền vững của ngành này.

Tăng nợ xấu bất động sản

Khi xảy ra cơn sốt đất, tỷ suất sinh lời cao khiến người người, nhà nhà đổ xô đi mua gom đất, thậm chí nhiều nhà đầu tư còn sử dụng đòn bẩy tài chính như thế chấp tài sản, vay ngân hàng… Nếu ngân hàng không kiểm soát chặt các khoản cho vay bất động sản thì nợ xấu rất có thể sẽ gia tăng. Khối nợ xấu bất động sản thông thường phải mất nhiều năm, thậm chí cả thập niên vẫn không xử lý hết. Nền kinh tế vì thế phải chịu thiệt thòi rất lớn.

Dòng vốn được phân bổ lệch

Nền kinh tế còn chịu thiệt hại lớn khi dòng vốn chảy vào bất động sản nhiều hơn ngành sản xuất và những ngành nghề khác. Nội lực của nền kinh tế không thuần túy là mua đất để chờ tăng giá mà phải bắt nguồn từ sản xuất hàng hóa.

Xem thêm: Bán nhà Bình Chánh

Không chỉ nắn dòng vốn cá nhân chảy vào bất động sản, cơn sốt đất còn dẫn đến tình trạng đầu tư trái ngành, nhiều doanh nghiệp sản xuất cũng mang tiền đi đầu tư nhà đất. Kịch bản lệch pha tồi tệ này của nền kinh tế trong bối cảnh giá đất hạ nhiệt hoặc thanh khoản đột ngột giảm có thể khiến thị trường chứng kiến những cái chết được báo trước trên khối tài sản (bất động sản).

Hình thành bong bóng bất động sản

Sốt đất hình thành bong bong giá, từ đó gây bất ổn trong cung cầu và khối bong bóng này sẽ ngày càng lớn hơn khi thị trường phát triển không bền vững. Dù khối bong bóng này xì hơi hay nổ tung thì cũng sẽ gây ra tình trạng đổ vỡ dây chuyền, khiên nền kinh tế bị thiệt hại nặng trong dài hạn.

Xu hướng kỳ vọng ảo

Cơn sốt đất thường kéo theo việc đầu tư theo hiệu ứng đám đông. Tâm lý đám đông sẽ tạo ra xu hướng kỳ vọng ảo và diễn biến xấu nhất có thể xảy ra là đổ vỡ dây chuyền. Nếu kéo dài, xu hướng kỳ vọng ảo còn tạo nên sức ì lớn cho nền kinh tế.

Nhiều người, tổ chức, doanh nghiệp đã giàu lên nhanh chóng nhờ buôn bán nhà quận 1 khi cơn sốt đang diễn ra. Tuy nhiên, nhìn tổng thể, sốt đất chỉ làm giàu cho một nhóm người mà không mang lại giá trị thặng dư cho xã hội. Khoảng cách giàu nghèo ngày càng rõ rệt do kịch bản phồn vinh giả này.

Tạo nên sự phồn vinh giả

Người thu nhập thấp khó mua nhà

Cơn sốt đất tác động trực tiếp lên giá nhà. Cơn sốt càng kéo dài, giá nhà càng tăng mạnh, những người thu nhập thấp càng khó có khả năng mua được nhà.

Để giải quyết, Chính phủ phải dùng nguồn lực lớn để lập quỹ nhà ở xã hội phục vụ an cư cho những người thu nhập thấp. Thực tế, quỹ nhà ở xã hội không thể đáp ứng hết nhu cầu nhà ở của người dân nên cơn sốt đất có thể gây thêm bất ổn xã hội.

Ông Nghĩa cho rằng, để có thể kiểm soát cơn sốt đất, cần phải có bàn tay chính sách đảm bảo am tường và thấu suốt. Tuy nhiên, trước khi có những chính sách của Nhà nước, để tránh rủi ro, nhà đầu tư, doanh nghiệp cần thận trọng khi quyết định đầu tư trong giai đoạn nhạy cảm này.

Xem thêm: Mua bán nhà Hà Nội

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